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I'm sorry, but TV still works when your goal is to stimulate behavioral change.
Legacy brands fighting for market share (banking, insurance, telco, QSR, some CPG, etc.) operate in a place where basically any adult with a pulse and a wallet are prospects. The ability to concurrently reach a large percentage of those adults with a single ad remains uniquely powerful, and broadcast television (particularly during football season) is the best place to quickly accumulate unique reach,.
The basis of my position is this chart:
Source: NMI A18+, for a plan where your GRPs are basically evenly split between lIinear and OTT
Stacking CTV publishers will make your frequency explode.
Sure, linear skews older, so supplement your video plan with YouTube to hit the youths. Everybody watches Youtube. CTV is … fine? It’s basically like buying cable; viewership across streaming platforms remains fragmented, and will continue to be fragmented until we get through the next wave of platform consolidation. When considering how to max incremental lift, unique reach is your friend, and things that drive frequency are the easiest to cut.
Verify TV incrementality with matched market testing.
Similar to the test I detailed in the section about Search incrementality, TV incrementality can be measured by matching DMAs to create test and control groups and determining lift with Causal Impact. Granted, this approach will not work if you are buying national linear television; you need to be buying spot TV or DMA targeted addressable or CTV. If all you buy is national linear, you need to find options to validate the results using a synthetic control. Unfortunately, I’m an analyst who has spent too much time on the internet, not a data scientist. I can’t tell you how to do this one yourself. There are companies who do this; I do not feel comfortable recommending or naming any outright.
I’ve yet to see Spot or Addressable TV fail to produce incremental lift.
The lift isn’t always huge, and if ads are live across multiple test markets, it isn’t always every market that produces lift, but in aggregate, TV is one of the most reliable drivers of incremental lift. In general:
The fraud issues that plague digital media do not exist in linear.
Video (including TV) > other media, because of the power of sight, sound and motion.
Sure people can’t click on TV ads, it’s not a direct response vehicle, but delayed response media are often be better drivers of incrementality.
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